There seem to be a fair number of pro-enchantment partisans posting arguments for You Make The Card 4, so I thought I would weigh in on the other side. What follows are a few reasons why I am in favor of choosing Land this time around.
1. Utility
By nature, Lands are colorless. (I'm ignoring you, Dryad Arbor, for being the exception that proves oh-so-many rules.) This simple fact means that a well-designed land can go in, and be usable by, any deck. By well-designed, I personally mean "does not create a color of mana" as well as "does not require colored mana to activate." (There's a huge design space available for land abilities using a colorless activation, so I see no reason why we should hamstring ourselves by requiring colored mana input.) A land that produces colorless and has a colorless effect with enough utility could theoretically be played my almost any deck, as the opportunity cost of playing it is only another land and doesn't require warping your mana base.
Enchantments, on the other hand, have to have a color and thus a mana cost requiring color. It doesn't take genius to figure out that there are many decks out there, be they Commander, Standard or other, that will not be able to take advantage of said enchantment, no matter how cool it is. This is not a huge problem in and of itself, as Magic without colored spells would be dull indeed, however if we are trying to satisfy as many people as possible then allowing any deck to use the designed card is a wise path indeed. Just look at Crucible of Worlds; it's the most popular previous YMTC winner partly because any deck can play it.
2. Playability
I asked a friend yesterday if he was voting in YMTC4. His answer? "No, I don't want another Vanish into Memory on my conscience." The failure of YMTC3's progeny likely held back the YMTC program for many years. The card is too hard to use profitably, between its double-colored mana requirement, relatively high CMC (4), and requirement that you have a creature that makes the effect worthwhile (i.e. something with high power and low toughness, and oh by the way, you better hope they don't kill that creature in response).
I believe that choosing Enchantment could lead us down the dark path towards another Vanish into Memory. While it's certainly possible that the process will result in a powerful, flavorful, constructed-playable staple, it's also possible that the mana cost will be too large, or require too many colors, or that the effect won't be potent enough to justify including the card in a deck. I argue that choosing enchantment is the higher variance choice; we could end up with something cool, but we could also end up with something horrible.
These are problems that don't exist for a land card. Since lands require no mana and produce mana themselves, there's a very small hurdle to jump to ensure that the card sees play in various formats. As stated previously, the effect need only be worthwhile enough to replace another land in the deck. While land might have a lower "top-end" than enchantment, it's also less likely to be relegated to the junk bin. I submit that the latter fate is the worst possible outcome for YMTC4, which is why I advocate in favor of land.
3. Design Space
This is an argument often used for enchantments, but I think the argument cuts both ways. There are many things that lands can do that enchantments cannot. Ignoring alternate futures, of course, enchantments do not tap. This means there are many effects that can't be printed on enchantments. Most activated abilities are off limits, for instance.
But enchantments don't have a monopoly on global effects, either. Just look at cards like Glacial Chasm, Cathedral of War, and The Tabernacle at Pendrell Vale for lands with interesting non-activated abilities. Enchantments do this better, yes, but it's not their sole domain.
4. Lands are Special!
Because of land's special nature, they can perform a vital role in shaping and balancing constructed formats. They can't be countered, and many discard spells miss them as well. When Wizards R&D wanted a card to punish counterspells in the post-Innistrad Standard environment, they created a land (Cavern of Souls). Want a card to hurt Reanimator and recursion-type decks that can't be hit by targeted discard? Bojuka Bog is just the card for you! Although I would not expect the design for a YMTC land to be used to these ends, the mere possibility is intriguing. As an example, how about a land that makes your other lands indestructible, for those pesky land destruction decks?
The mere fact that lands are immune to most countermeasure make them an attractive option for YMTC4. What's the point of designing a fun, flavorful card, only to have it stripped out of your hand, or countered, or destroyed prior to using it?
In conclusion, I believe land is the best choice for YMTC4. It has a more reasonable likelihood of resulting in a playable card, has access to interesting design space, can be used by more decks, and can be more reliably used within a given game. Choosing enchantment could result in a home run, but it could also result in another Vanish to Memory, and if we as a community wish to continue the YMTC program, that's an outcome we simply can't afford.
Monday, March 18, 2013
Friday, April 17, 2009
Winning the Winners Winners Winners League
Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love LeBron
Part 1: The Draft
Entering the 2008-09 fantasy basketball season, I was looking for a challenge. All of my private leagues were in the head-to-head format (which, as those of you who pay attention to my posts know, is not my favorite format in the world), so I was looking for a challenging roto league. I had played in roto leagues in the past, but all were Yahoo! Public leagues and, as those who have played in such leagues can attest, they are not the surest test of fantasy skill. Half the teams lag far behind in games played at midseason due to inactivity, leaving a handful of attentive teams to vie for the title; popular waiver adds who would be snapped up immediately in normal 12 team leagues somehow linger on the wire for days on end; and strategy is rudimentary at best (“How many Pistons can I draft?” and “Let’s pair Dwight Howard and Tracy McGrady together and see what happens!” being two methods I’ve observed).
Part 1: The Draft
Entering the 2008-09 fantasy basketball season, I was looking for a challenge. All of my private leagues were in the head-to-head format (which, as those of you who pay attention to my posts know, is not my favorite format in the world), so I was looking for a challenging roto league. I had played in roto leagues in the past, but all were Yahoo! Public leagues and, as those who have played in such leagues can attest, they are not the surest test of fantasy skill. Half the teams lag far behind in games played at midseason due to inactivity, leaving a handful of attentive teams to vie for the title; popular waiver adds who would be snapped up immediately in normal 12 team leagues somehow linger on the wire for days on end; and strategy is rudimentary at best (“How many Pistons can I draft?” and “Let’s pair Dwight Howard and Tracy McGrady together and see what happens!” being two methods I’ve observed).
Clearly, finding a roto league populated with smart, attentive managers who get their games played in is a non-trivial exercise. This is why, when rotoworld.com forum legend The Czar approached me about playing in his long-running roto league, I jumped at the chance. Despite a lack of financial incentives, this is a league that takes itself very seriously; players get their games in or suffer the consequences (teams outside the top 3 who don’t get 780 games in are subject to removal from the league), and the trash talk is often merciless. Also present was Phantasy Phreak from these very same forums, along with 9 others who are not forum members.
Our live draft took place a bit before the season started, on 19 October 2008. We had determined draft order before the draft date, and I knew that I would have the 4th pick in the draft. Coming into the 08-09 season, the two clear top options in roto were Chris Paul and Amare Stoudemire. Clearly, my first option was to take one of these two if they happened to slip. They didn’t. Paul went first,
Having taken what I thought was a huge FT% anchor, I was determined to shore up that category with my next couple of selections. I was pleased as punch to be able to select Kevin Martin with my second-round selection (pick #21). KMartJu was the 4th most positive FT shooting player in 2008-09, and #2 the season before that. While I didn’t figure he would singlehandedly save my FT%, he was definitely the player I wanted at that slot and would go a long way to salvaging that category.
When my third pick (#28) rolled around, I (basically) had no choice but to draft Marcus Camby. He was a player I had ranked very high on my pre-season cheat sheet (mid-second round, to be precise). Despite the injury history and new team (pre-Randolph trade, mind you), I couldn’t avoid the value in this spot.
For my fourth pick (#45), I selected another roto mainstay in Rasheed Wallace. One of the elite roto players, Wallace is a longtime member of the 1-1-1 club (steals, blocks, three pointers made), has C eligibility, and also seldom commits TOs. Rasheed is another player whose value (end of 3rd round) far exceeded his draft slot.
With my fifth selection (#52), I took a calculated risk and selected Mike Dunleavy, Jr. Dunleavy was the 31st ranked player in 9-cat roto for 07-08, and while I didn’t expect quite that level of production, I figured at pick 52 he would be a good value even with a built-in drop-off from his play of the previous season. I didn’t figure he would have a giant bone spur in his knee, but that’s a topic for another time.
Well-known percentage assassin David Lee was my selection in the sixth round (#69). Obviously his play this season exceeded my expectations, but even if he were to simply duplicate his last year’s stat line (11 points, 9 rebounds, 55%/81%) he would be another positive force for my percentages.
My seventh-round choice presented an unexpected but pleasant problem. Both Andris Biedrins and Ray Allen were remaining on the board for pick #76. I had both guys going much higher in the draft, so I was quite stunned to see them last that long. While Allen was probably the better choice for my team (given a slight dearth of three-point shooting with Wallace, Dunleavy, and LeBron so far), I channeled my inner Brad Evans and succumbed to the man-crush, taking the spiky-haired Latvian.
At this point The Czar said in chat something along the lines of “I think you just punted FT%.” Clearly I had some more work to do, and fast. It was for this reason that I selected Richard Hamilton with my eighth-round choice, pick #93. I am not a big fan of
My ninth-round selection (#100) was another FT% assassin, Kirk Hinrich. Despite massive uncertainly regarding his role in the stacked
In Round 10 (#117) I took one final FT% assassin, Kyle Korver. He also helped me in threes, which I felt was a weak point of my team.
Round 11 (#124) – Gilbert Arenas. Since my starting lineup was ostensibly filled, I took a chance on an injured guy here. Considering I didn’t spend much, I don’t really regret this pick.
Round 12 (#141) – Rodney Stuckey. This was an awesome genius pick that I proceeded to screw up by dropping him in the beginning of the season.
Round 13 (#148) – Louis Williams. Not much to see here.
If you glance over my supposed starting roster, Hinrich – Dunleavy – Hamilton - LBJ – Lee – Wallace - Biedrins – Camby - Korver – Martin, my team was very strong in most categories, including TOs. While many roto players choose to simply ignore turnovers, I feel it’s a chance to get a ton of value in players that others might not be too jazzed about. As many of you have read, there is a clear inverse relationship between standing in AST and TOs; that is, the higher in AST you finish, the lower you finish in TO (generally speaking). Many players pump high draft picks into PGs like Deron Williams to finish strong in AST, but such players only end up tanking you in TOs. It’s a zero sum game, basically. If you know that with some deft managing you will get at best a total of 16-18 points from the two categories combined, why kill yourself over AST?
Saturday, February 21, 2009
SS Rankings - 2009
These rankings are for ESPN default leagues (5 IF positions + MI + CI, 5 x OF, UT) and ESPN position assignments.
Tier 1 – “High Demand, Big Payoff”
1. Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – The #1 overall fantasy player, in this writer’s humble opinion. He gives you 20-40 with an average above .300, great runs scored and good RBI for a SS.
2. Jose Reyes (NYM) – A bit of a drop-off from #1 to #2, but Reyes is still the game’s premier source of stolen bases, and he scores a boatload of runs in that stacked lineup.
3. Jimmy Rollins (PHI) – I considered putting him in Tier 2, but there’s a huge dropoff from Rollins to Furcal. Maybe he should have gone by himself in Tier 2? At any rate, solid production, but don’t count on 2007 here. 20hr and 30sb would be a fine season.
Tier 2 – “High Quality Options”
4. Rafael Furcal (LAD) – A back injury limited Furcal to only 36 games last season, but he was the best SS in the game by averages. A small sample space, to be sure, but even with a significant drop-off he will justify a pick in the 3rd/4th round.
5. Stephen Drew (ARI) – A breakout 2008 has perhaps raised expectations for Drew the Younger to unreachable expectations, but if he gives you 2008 again it will be enough to justify this ranking, with potential for a bit more.
6. Jhonny Peralta (CLE) – The Misspelled Masher had a breakout 2008 with 23 homers, 104 runs scored and 89 RBI. While those totals aren’t likely to be repeated, Peralta gives you solid pop for a mid-round SS, provided you can find steals elsewhere.
Tier 3 – “Solid, yet unspectacular”
7. Michael Young (TEX) – He’s on the wrong side of 30, so that’s something to be wary of, but he still hits for a high average and should be in the neighborhood of 80 runs and 80 RBI. The expected 3B eligibility will be a bonus, but you’ll almost certainly have him at SS based on scarcity.
8. J.J. Hardy (MIL) – A solid SS who hits for some pop but won’t contribute in the SB category and is average (at best) in average. One thing to note is that he’s prone to brutal slumps (and hot streaks), so you may be able to pry him away from an impatient owner when he’s in a cold spell.
9. Derek Jeter (NYY) – Almost always goes higher than he should based on reputation and name recognition. He’s 35, but if drafted properly he’ll merit his spot. Contributes across the board (.290/10+/80+/60+/10+). Don’t expect any more .330 or 30 SB seasons or you’ll be disappointed.
10. Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – People are all aboard the Tulowitzki bandwagon after his good second half of ’08 erased people’s memories of his sub-abysmal first half. I guess I’m just not as willing to pretend that 80 games don’t count for anything. He could be a top-5 SS, but could also be thoroughly mediocre.
11. Miguel Tejada (HOU) – No lies, this guy is a good source of power from a difficult position. However, he’s 35 (assuming he only fibbed once on his birth certificate), and I would rather perjure myself than pick him in the first 7 rounds of a 12-team mixed draft.
Tier 4 – “Passable”
12. Mike Aviles (KC) – His 2008 season was better than any of his minor league seasons, which raises a huge red flag. He’s bound to normalize, but his free-swinging ways should make him a good candidate for double-digit homers and 60-70 runs/RBI; not bad considering his team.
13. Edgar Renteria (SF) – Renteria seems to be one of the most controversial shortstops this year. People seem to be of the mind that he’s either a walking corpse or that he’ll walk on water due to his return to the NL. I’d split the difference and hope for a .280/10/85/60/5 season.
14. Yunel Escobar (ATL) – He’s not a BA assassin, he doesn’t steal many bases or hit for much power, and his R/RBI totals are unimpressive, but he does all of them just well enough to merit a spot in 12-team mixed leagues. You could certainly do worse, but if you pick him and still have to fill a MI position you could be in trouble.
15. Orlando Cabrera (FA) – He’ll chip in to your SB totals and won’t kill you with his average. Another tolerable option at SS, provided that he actually has a contract (details, details!).
16. Ryan Theriot (CHC) – Um, he steals bases. Actually a better player in fantasy than in real life, which doesn’t say much about either Jim Hendry or Lou Piniella, sadly.
Tier 5 – “The Dregs”
17. Elvis Andrus (TEX) – I am pretty terrible with rookies, so I’ll just put him here towards the end of the draft. Provided he sticks, he should contribute well in steals and that’s about it. I would only take him as a luxury or as a late-round flier.
18. Cristian Guzman (WAS) – That really was the mother of all fluke seasons, wasn’t it? I certainly wouldn’t expect that again, but if he hit .270 with some steals and runs scored, it wouldn’t shock the hell out of me, either.
19. Clint Barmes (COL) – Should start at 2B but should also be SS eligible, which is handy. I’m not sure which position is more scarce, but I’d guess the former. Serviceable.
20. Khalil Greene (STL) – His 2008 was truly awful, but he should be better than that. He’s capable of 20 HR, and if he hits .255 or better, that would be a bonus.
21. Jason Bartlett (TB) – Hey, at this point getting anything from your SS is a bonus, so Bartlett’s potential 20+ steals are bound to help out your team.
Tier 1 – “High Demand, Big Payoff”
1. Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – The #1 overall fantasy player, in this writer’s humble opinion. He gives you 20-40 with an average above .300, great runs scored and good RBI for a SS.
2. Jose Reyes (NYM) – A bit of a drop-off from #1 to #2, but Reyes is still the game’s premier source of stolen bases, and he scores a boatload of runs in that stacked lineup.
3. Jimmy Rollins (PHI) – I considered putting him in Tier 2, but there’s a huge dropoff from Rollins to Furcal. Maybe he should have gone by himself in Tier 2? At any rate, solid production, but don’t count on 2007 here. 20hr and 30sb would be a fine season.
Tier 2 – “High Quality Options”
4. Rafael Furcal (LAD) – A back injury limited Furcal to only 36 games last season, but he was the best SS in the game by averages. A small sample space, to be sure, but even with a significant drop-off he will justify a pick in the 3rd/4th round.
5. Stephen Drew (ARI) – A breakout 2008 has perhaps raised expectations for Drew the Younger to unreachable expectations, but if he gives you 2008 again it will be enough to justify this ranking, with potential for a bit more.
6. Jhonny Peralta (CLE) – The Misspelled Masher had a breakout 2008 with 23 homers, 104 runs scored and 89 RBI. While those totals aren’t likely to be repeated, Peralta gives you solid pop for a mid-round SS, provided you can find steals elsewhere.
Tier 3 – “Solid, yet unspectacular”
7. Michael Young (TEX) – He’s on the wrong side of 30, so that’s something to be wary of, but he still hits for a high average and should be in the neighborhood of 80 runs and 80 RBI. The expected 3B eligibility will be a bonus, but you’ll almost certainly have him at SS based on scarcity.
8. J.J. Hardy (MIL) – A solid SS who hits for some pop but won’t contribute in the SB category and is average (at best) in average. One thing to note is that he’s prone to brutal slumps (and hot streaks), so you may be able to pry him away from an impatient owner when he’s in a cold spell.
9. Derek Jeter (NYY) – Almost always goes higher than he should based on reputation and name recognition. He’s 35, but if drafted properly he’ll merit his spot. Contributes across the board (.290/10+/80+/60+/10+). Don’t expect any more .330 or 30 SB seasons or you’ll be disappointed.
10. Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – People are all aboard the Tulowitzki bandwagon after his good second half of ’08 erased people’s memories of his sub-abysmal first half. I guess I’m just not as willing to pretend that 80 games don’t count for anything. He could be a top-5 SS, but could also be thoroughly mediocre.
11. Miguel Tejada (HOU) – No lies, this guy is a good source of power from a difficult position. However, he’s 35 (assuming he only fibbed once on his birth certificate), and I would rather perjure myself than pick him in the first 7 rounds of a 12-team mixed draft.
Tier 4 – “Passable”
12. Mike Aviles (KC) – His 2008 season was better than any of his minor league seasons, which raises a huge red flag. He’s bound to normalize, but his free-swinging ways should make him a good candidate for double-digit homers and 60-70 runs/RBI; not bad considering his team.
13. Edgar Renteria (SF) – Renteria seems to be one of the most controversial shortstops this year. People seem to be of the mind that he’s either a walking corpse or that he’ll walk on water due to his return to the NL. I’d split the difference and hope for a .280/10/85/60/5 season.
14. Yunel Escobar (ATL) – He’s not a BA assassin, he doesn’t steal many bases or hit for much power, and his R/RBI totals are unimpressive, but he does all of them just well enough to merit a spot in 12-team mixed leagues. You could certainly do worse, but if you pick him and still have to fill a MI position you could be in trouble.
15. Orlando Cabrera (FA) – He’ll chip in to your SB totals and won’t kill you with his average. Another tolerable option at SS, provided that he actually has a contract (details, details!).
16. Ryan Theriot (CHC) – Um, he steals bases. Actually a better player in fantasy than in real life, which doesn’t say much about either Jim Hendry or Lou Piniella, sadly.
Tier 5 – “The Dregs”
17. Elvis Andrus (TEX) – I am pretty terrible with rookies, so I’ll just put him here towards the end of the draft. Provided he sticks, he should contribute well in steals and that’s about it. I would only take him as a luxury or as a late-round flier.
18. Cristian Guzman (WAS) – That really was the mother of all fluke seasons, wasn’t it? I certainly wouldn’t expect that again, but if he hit .270 with some steals and runs scored, it wouldn’t shock the hell out of me, either.
19. Clint Barmes (COL) – Should start at 2B but should also be SS eligible, which is handy. I’m not sure which position is more scarce, but I’d guess the former. Serviceable.
20. Khalil Greene (STL) – His 2008 was truly awful, but he should be better than that. He’s capable of 20 HR, and if he hits .255 or better, that would be a bonus.
21. Jason Bartlett (TB) – Hey, at this point getting anything from your SS is a bonus, so Bartlett’s potential 20+ steals are bound to help out your team.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Build-Your-Own NBA Draft Kit, Part 3: Laws of Averages
When we last left off, we had imported all the raw data for every player in the NBA into an Excel spreadsheet, and eliminated (usually) unnecessary categories such as PF, Ejections, and Games Started. What you should have is something that looks like this:
Before we compute per-game averages for each player and category, allow me a word as to why I use averages instead of totals. Simply put, averages are a much better way of gauging a player's impact than totals. If a player gets suspended or injured, that will of course hurt their categories from a totals point of view, while the effect on averages will be minimal. Now, injury is of course something that needs to be considered when assembling a team (see the later installment "The Human Element," but it's easier to remember which players were injured and bump then down than to scour the entire list, flagging players who missed a lot of games, then move them up drastically in your rankings. For example, if Star Player X missed 60 games due to a freak broken leg, he would have a terrible ranking based on totals, but by averages he should be right in line with previous years. Comparing by averages doesn't harm this player for his freak injury. Of course, I will revisit the topic of injuries later.
Now that I have made the decision to use averages instead of totals in our comparisons, let's get on with it. For "counting" categories like points, rebounds, and steals, quite obviously you need to divide that category by the number of games played by that player. For instance, to calculate Shareef Abdur-Rahim's average field goals per game, you would divide cell C2 by cell B2 (in the above picture). How do we do this?
First, we need to insert a column to the right of "FGM." Right click on the "D" column (or whichever column corresponds to FTM), then choose "insert" and Excel will magically insert an empty column between what were previously columns C and D.
Second, in cell D1 type "FGM/G" or some other shorthand to indicate what will lie in the column below. Resize the column if necessary.
Third, in cell D2 type "=C2/$B2" and hit enter (don't use the quotation marks, please). This will show a value of "0.5" in cell D2.
Fourth, left click on cell D2 and hold, drag down to the end of the spreadsheet (cell D452), then release the left mouse button and use Ctrl+D on your keyboard. This does what is known as "fill down," which can also be selected by going to Edit->Fill->Down. A number should appear in every cell in that column.
Notice that the cells have varying decimal places (i.e. some say 3.5, others 4.7344)? This can be corrected. Your column should still be highlighted. If it's not, click on the "D" at the top of the column. Right click, go to "Format Cells," choose the "Number" tab and the "Number" category, then "3" under "Decimal Places." You can of course use 2 or 1 or 4 if you wish, but I think 3 gives a good amount of certainty without flooding your spreadsheet with numbers.
This procedure can be used for all the "counting" categories (in my case, FGM/G, FTM/G, 3PTM/G, PPG, RPG, APG, SPG, and BPG). For categories like A/TO ratio and percentages, you need to do the same as above, but instead of automatically dividing by your "C" column (games played), you divide by FGA, FTA, or TO. For example, to calculate FT% you divide the FTM cell by the FTA cell. 4 decimal places should work just fine for these ratio categories.
If your column has a bunch of "######" cells in it, it means that your column is not wide enough to display the digits. Just double click on the cell border at the top of the column (i.e. next to the letter D) to widen the column.
One more thing; if a cell reads "DIV/O" it means that that player did not attempt a field goal (or free throw) during the season. For example, Kaniel Dickens (whoever the heck that is). Feel free to just delete these players right now to save you the hassle. Right click on the row number (i.e. "22") and choose "Delete." Alternately, if you wish to keep these players in the spreadsheet, you can chance the formula for that specific cell to "=IF(J110=0,0,J110/I110)" which states that if the player's FTA is 0, set the cell to 0, otherwise calculate it as normal.
When you are done, your spreadsheet should look something like this (this is a default 9 cat roto league setup):
As I promised last time, a brief word about what metrics we are going to use to compare players. For points leagues, going from here is really easy. You can just figure out how many points your player would get per game using your league's settings, then make a ranking of them. But for most leagues, it's just not that simple. For example, suppose we have 2 players, player A and player B. They are in every category identical, except for two, points and blocked shots. Player A averages 16 points per game, and player B averages 8 ppg. However, player A averages 1.5 blocked shots per game, while player B averages 3 bpg. A quick thought might tell you that the players are equal, because while player A is twice as good in one category, he's also half as good in another category (all other categories are equal). However, a few moments' thought beyond this would also instruct you that this is just not true. Blocked shots (primarily, but other categories like steals and three pointers) are not worth the same as others (points, rebounds). Having a guy block another 1.5 shots per game easily outweighs his deficiency in scoring. That is, not all categories are created equal; some are more scarce (and therefore more valuable).
So how do we compare players? There are several ways that I have found.
1. Something similar to VORP (value over replacement player) in baseball. Basically, you estimate the "average" player who would be on your waiver wire, and determine how much better (or worse) a player is compared to the average wire player.
2. Take a league average of per-game stats, and compare players to the league average.
3. Compare players to the league leaders in each category.
I will share my preferred method with you next time, and we will get into the real nitty gritty of working up these numbers.
Until then,
-M
Sunday, August 5, 2007
The Brand Conundrum
Greetings from Kauai! Yes, that's right, I'm making a blog entry from my honeymoon. The jokes tell themselves, folks. Don't go thinking you are the second coming of George Carlin or anything.
This post could just have easily been titled "The Gason Question" or "Amare or No?" after their draft-day question marks the last couple years. For Gasol, a broken ankle in international play left him out for the first few months of the season, and for Stoudemire, recovery from microfracture surgery. In Gasol's case, his return from the injury was a lot more predictable since a bone break has a very established timeline for a return. People generally picked him in about the 4th-5th round of their drafts (he went in the early 4th round of my 14 team competitive H2H league), depending on your scoring system and format (it's a heck of a lot easier to carry an injured guy in roto than in daily H2H leagues). He did come back on schedule and was a very productive player for the rest of the year, making his draft position well worth it.
The year prior, Stoudemire went somewhere around the 4th-6th round, which varied widely based on people's optimism or love for the Phoenix Suns. As we now know, Stoudemire wouldn't have merited a 16th round selection much less a 6th rounder based on his eventual performance (hint: he didn't do much). Apparently microfracture surgery is a real bitch to come back from!
Can we use these two very different past results to make a good suggestion of where to take Elton Q. Brand, Esquire?
Well, to start off this is all going to depend on the stated timetable for Brand's return. If it's "one year," then clearly he would be out for the season and we would all be looking forward to 2008-2009 (his draft position in that situation would best be discussed in another posting). If it's "six months," as has also been mentioned, that would put his return date at about February. The fantasy basketball season runs from the end of October to the end of April, give or take. The FBB regular season runs until the end of March. That would give a Brand return at the most optimistically about 3 months of playing time (probably more like 2 and a half).
A more relevant question is not "how long will he be playing?" but "how effective will he be?" I can't remember a prominent basketball player tearing his achilles tendon, but I would imagine that even after returning from the injury, Brand will be quite rusty and out of shape. Factor in at least a couple of weeks for him to get back in the swing of things, get his legs under him, and get his timing back. That gives you 2 months of playing time, and remember, that's the best case situation.
So where should we pick him? To me, a guy who is going to give you (at best) 2 months of playing time, with the distinct possibility of missing the entire season or being just plain ineffective, isn't worth anything more than a late-round flier in all but the deepest of the leagues. In roto you can burn a 9th or 10th rounder on him if you want, but in daily H2H the cost is simply too great to keep a guy on your bench for perhaps the entire year. I would not bother drafting him at all, but if forced to I would take him in the very last round. Of course, I'm sure some rocket scientists out there will take him in th 7th or 8th, hoping for a miracle comeback, but I don't believe in miracles. I believe in beating those guys who believe in miracles.
Aloha!
This post could just have easily been titled "The Gason Question" or "Amare or No?" after their draft-day question marks the last couple years. For Gasol, a broken ankle in international play left him out for the first few months of the season, and for Stoudemire, recovery from microfracture surgery. In Gasol's case, his return from the injury was a lot more predictable since a bone break has a very established timeline for a return. People generally picked him in about the 4th-5th round of their drafts (he went in the early 4th round of my 14 team competitive H2H league), depending on your scoring system and format (it's a heck of a lot easier to carry an injured guy in roto than in daily H2H leagues). He did come back on schedule and was a very productive player for the rest of the year, making his draft position well worth it.
The year prior, Stoudemire went somewhere around the 4th-6th round, which varied widely based on people's optimism or love for the Phoenix Suns. As we now know, Stoudemire wouldn't have merited a 16th round selection much less a 6th rounder based on his eventual performance (hint: he didn't do much). Apparently microfracture surgery is a real bitch to come back from!
Can we use these two very different past results to make a good suggestion of where to take Elton Q. Brand, Esquire?
Well, to start off this is all going to depend on the stated timetable for Brand's return. If it's "one year," then clearly he would be out for the season and we would all be looking forward to 2008-2009 (his draft position in that situation would best be discussed in another posting). If it's "six months," as has also been mentioned, that would put his return date at about February. The fantasy basketball season runs from the end of October to the end of April, give or take. The FBB regular season runs until the end of March. That would give a Brand return at the most optimistically about 3 months of playing time (probably more like 2 and a half).
A more relevant question is not "how long will he be playing?" but "how effective will he be?" I can't remember a prominent basketball player tearing his achilles tendon, but I would imagine that even after returning from the injury, Brand will be quite rusty and out of shape. Factor in at least a couple of weeks for him to get back in the swing of things, get his legs under him, and get his timing back. That gives you 2 months of playing time, and remember, that's the best case situation.
So where should we pick him? To me, a guy who is going to give you (at best) 2 months of playing time, with the distinct possibility of missing the entire season or being just plain ineffective, isn't worth anything more than a late-round flier in all but the deepest of the leagues. In roto you can burn a 9th or 10th rounder on him if you want, but in daily H2H the cost is simply too great to keep a guy on your bench for perhaps the entire year. I would not bother drafting him at all, but if forced to I would take him in the very last round. Of course, I'm sure some rocket scientists out there will take him in th 7th or 8th, hoping for a miracle comeback, but I don't believe in miracles. I believe in beating those guys who believe in miracles.
Aloha!
Wednesday, July 4, 2007
Build-Your-Own NBA Draft Kit, Part 2: Setup
Last time, I listed several excellent reasons why building your own NBA draft kit is a stellar idea. Now we can move on to the actual doing of stuff. If you don't like actually doing stuff, you should probably check back in a few months after the NBA season has started and I'm posting more timely things. But seriously, who doesn't like doing stuff? I sure as hell do. Let's get started.
First, go to Doug Steele's excellent NBA and MLB stats page. You can find it at http://dougstats.com/. Under "Past NBA Seasons," click on "07-08 Stats." Then, on the next page, click on "All Player's Raw Data." This will open up a page with a veritable sea of data. Right click on the page and choose "select all," which of course will highlight all the data. Paste that data in a notepad file on your computer desktop (If you are using Linux, well, I don't even know where to begin. Then again, if you're using Linux, you're probably not playing fantasy basketball in the first place). If you're seriously computer illiterate, go to your desktop, right-click -> new -> text document, then rename that document "markdashrules.txt" or something similarly appropriate. Enter this text document, then paste the data into it using control+v. Save and close the document.
Now fire up Microsoft Excel. If you don't have Excel, well, you probably have Linux or a Mac, in which case this post isn't for you. If you have Microsoft Windows but not Excel, you should probably buy it, or, you know, find someone who has it. It's great not only for fantasy basketball draft kits but all sorts of other useful purposes. Close the document that automatically opened, go to file->open, change "type of file" to "all files," change the path to desktop (or wherever you decided to put the raw data text document), and select your raw data text file. Something called a "text import wizard" will then open up, which helps you convert your text file into a manipulatable Excel spreadsheet. Click "next" twice and then "finish."
One quick tip--SAVE FREQUENTLY. I have had several instances of heavy data manipulation where Excel randomly shuts down and you lose all your progress. Annoying. First, click file-save as, choose your path (Jedi or Sith, err, I mean desktop or My Documents or wherever it is you put your dirty, dirty spreadsheets), change "save as type" to "Microsoft Office Excel Workbook" (which is at the top), then name it something appropriate like Markdashisawesome.xls (new file extensions are "xlsx," which should work fine).
After saving, you can re-size the columns to show the players' entire names (blame Dikembe Mutombo, but hey, at least we don't have to use his middle names) and to cut down on the size given to the rest of the columns. This helps you view as much data as possible at any one time. Double click on the column border (at the top, where it says A, B, C, etc.) to resize. This also works for rows, by the way. For example, click the right edge of column D header to reduce its size.
The first thing you want to actually change on the spreadsheet (and the last thing I will go over in this particular entry of BYONDK) is to delete columns that have no importance to your fantasy league. For most of us, categories such as PF (personal fouls), DQ (disqualifications) and the like are completely superfluous. Right click on the columns, then go to "delete" to delete them forever more. For reference, here are what the columns stand for, and their importance:
team = the last team that player played for that season (unnecessary)
PS = positions (I usually get rid of this one because every fantasy site has different position info)
GP = games played (vital)
Min = minutes played (unimportant, unless you draft based on PER or the like)
FGM = field goals made (vital)
FGA = field goals attempted (vital)
3M = three pointers made (most likely vital)
3A = three pointers attempted (depends on your league settings)
FTM = free throws made (vital)
FTA = free throws attempted (vital)
OR = offensive rebounds (most likely unimportant)
TR = total rebounds (vital)
AS = assists (vital)
ST = steals (vital)
TO = turnovers (most likely vital)
BK = blocks (vital)
PF = personal fouls (unimportant)
DQ = disqualifications (unimportant)
PTS = points (vital)
TC = technical fouls (unimportant)
EJ = ejections (unimportant)
FF = flagrant fouls (unimportant)
Sta = starts (unimportant)
Of course, the importance of the above categories all depends on your individual league and its settings. If you are in a no-percentages league, you can get rid of stuff like makes/attempts, and I have heard of some barbarians who actually use offensive rebounds as a category (yikes!). This is the best thing about making your own draft kit--you are not bound by "standard" ranking systems which will quite often not conform to your own personalized league settings.
Next time, the real fun begins--discussing the relative merits of Pops Mensah-Bonsu versus Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje. Oh, and I might also begin calculating per-game averages for everyone in the NBA and begin discussing some metrics for player comparison.
Until then,
-M
First, go to Doug Steele's excellent NBA and MLB stats page. You can find it at http://dougstats.com/. Under "Past NBA Seasons," click on "07-08 Stats." Then, on the next page, click on "All Player's Raw Data." This will open up a page with a veritable sea of data. Right click on the page and choose "select all," which of course will highlight all the data. Paste that data in a notepad file on your computer desktop (If you are using Linux, well, I don't even know where to begin. Then again, if you're using Linux, you're probably not playing fantasy basketball in the first place). If you're seriously computer illiterate, go to your desktop, right-click -> new -> text document, then rename that document "markdashrules.txt" or something similarly appropriate. Enter this text document, then paste the data into it using control+v. Save and close the document.
Now fire up Microsoft Excel. If you don't have Excel, well, you probably have Linux or a Mac, in which case this post isn't for you. If you have Microsoft Windows but not Excel, you should probably buy it, or, you know, find someone who has it. It's great not only for fantasy basketball draft kits but all sorts of other useful purposes. Close the document that automatically opened, go to file->open, change "type of file" to "all files," change the path to desktop (or wherever you decided to put the raw data text document), and select your raw data text file. Something called a "text import wizard" will then open up, which helps you convert your text file into a manipulatable Excel spreadsheet. Click "next" twice and then "finish."
One quick tip--SAVE FREQUENTLY. I have had several instances of heavy data manipulation where Excel randomly shuts down and you lose all your progress. Annoying. First, click file-save as, choose your path (Jedi or Sith, err, I mean desktop or My Documents or wherever it is you put your dirty, dirty spreadsheets), change "save as type" to "Microsoft Office Excel Workbook" (which is at the top), then name it something appropriate like Markdashisawesome.xls (new file extensions are "xlsx," which should work fine).
After saving, you can re-size the columns to show the players' entire names (blame Dikembe Mutombo, but hey, at least we don't have to use his middle names) and to cut down on the size given to the rest of the columns. This helps you view as much data as possible at any one time. Double click on the column border (at the top, where it says A, B, C, etc.) to resize. This also works for rows, by the way. For example, click the right edge of column D header to reduce its size.
The first thing you want to actually change on the spreadsheet (and the last thing I will go over in this particular entry of BYONDK) is to delete columns that have no importance to your fantasy league. For most of us, categories such as PF (personal fouls), DQ (disqualifications) and the like are completely superfluous. Right click on the columns, then go to "delete" to delete them forever more. For reference, here are what the columns stand for, and their importance:
team = the last team that player played for that season (unnecessary)
PS = positions (I usually get rid of this one because every fantasy site has different position info)
GP = games played (vital)
Min = minutes played (unimportant, unless you draft based on PER or the like)
FGM = field goals made (vital)
FGA = field goals attempted (vital)
3M = three pointers made (most likely vital)
3A = three pointers attempted (depends on your league settings)
FTM = free throws made (vital)
FTA = free throws attempted (vital)
OR = offensive rebounds (most likely unimportant)
TR = total rebounds (vital)
AS = assists (vital)
ST = steals (vital)
TO = turnovers (most likely vital)
BK = blocks (vital)
PF = personal fouls (unimportant)
DQ = disqualifications (unimportant)
PTS = points (vital)
TC = technical fouls (unimportant)
EJ = ejections (unimportant)
FF = flagrant fouls (unimportant)
Sta = starts (unimportant)
Of course, the importance of the above categories all depends on your individual league and its settings. If you are in a no-percentages league, you can get rid of stuff like makes/attempts, and I have heard of some barbarians who actually use offensive rebounds as a category (yikes!). This is the best thing about making your own draft kit--you are not bound by "standard" ranking systems which will quite often not conform to your own personalized league settings.
Next time, the real fun begins--discussing the relative merits of Pops Mensah-Bonsu versus Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje. Oh, and I might also begin calculating per-game averages for everyone in the NBA and begin discussing some metrics for player comparison.
Until then,
-M
Sunday, May 13, 2007
Build-Your-Own NBA Draft Kit, Part 1: Overview
In case the title didn't give it away, there are going to be a series of articles detailing how you, my humble reader, can build your very own draft kit using only Microsoft Excel, a pile of stats and some American ingenuity (international readers: I do apologize. Feel free to substitute Djiboutian ingenuity, Icelandic ingenuity, or whatever ingenuity you prefer).
There are several good reasons to build your own draft kit, but the biggest one has to be...
1. YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY A RED CENT
I suppose there are a lot of people out there who enjoy paying $20-$50 for a draft kit from one of the "expert" fantasy sites out there, but I certainly am not one of them. If your time is really that valuable that you can't spend a few hours churning some numbers, then purchasing a draft kit is perfectly fine. But why are you even reading this in the first place? Go back to managing your stock portfolio!
Anyway, for the rest of us who A) have a few hours to kill, B) like understanding why exactly Danny Granger is better than Dwyane Wade (...or is he?), and C) want to save a few bucks, this is the place for you! Other reasons for building your own draft kit are...
2. FULLY CUSTOMIZABLE
Running a non-standard league that uses offensive fouls, free throws attempted, and assist/turnover ratio? Some draft kits might have a problem giving you adjusted rankings based on these categories. If you make your own draft kit, you can feel free to include and exclude whatever statistics you want based on the parameters of your league.
3. THE NUMBERS NEVER LIE
Pardon me for stealing Matt Buser's favorite line, but it really is true. Memories have a tendency to betray us. We remember some things favorably and others unfavorably. Would you build a draft kit if you had watched every single NBA game all year long, but didn't ever see any statistics? Clearly, no. So use those numbers, folks!
Others have criticized me in the past for "just looking at the numbers." Well, this may come as a shock, but fantasy sports are all about numbers! (Gasp!) This is not to say that the human element has no place, but at its core, the player with the best numbers wins.
4. IT GIVES PEOPLE SOMETHING TO ARGUE ABOUT
I am sure that some of you might disagree with my methods. That's fine! I am always open to new ideas for improving the process. I myself have second- and triple-guessed my own means of building draft kits, and have honed the process over a period of years. One of the great things about Fantasy Sports is that it gives people a competitive outlet, and I would hope that that same competitive spirit transfers over to this series (even if it consists of "You're a moron, Mark.").
Tune in next time for the second installment of the series, which will cover the following topics:
-Where to obtain fancy statistics for the NBA
-How to import said statistics in Microsoft Excel
-Where to download free pirated copies of Excel (just kidding!)
-Jessica Alba's phone number (kidding again!)
-Initial customization of the spreadsheet for our particular league (serious on this one!)
Until then, take care.
-M
There are several good reasons to build your own draft kit, but the biggest one has to be...
1. YOU DON'T HAVE TO PAY A RED CENT
I suppose there are a lot of people out there who enjoy paying $20-$50 for a draft kit from one of the "expert" fantasy sites out there, but I certainly am not one of them. If your time is really that valuable that you can't spend a few hours churning some numbers, then purchasing a draft kit is perfectly fine. But why are you even reading this in the first place? Go back to managing your stock portfolio!
Anyway, for the rest of us who A) have a few hours to kill, B) like understanding why exactly Danny Granger is better than Dwyane Wade (...or is he?), and C) want to save a few bucks, this is the place for you! Other reasons for building your own draft kit are...
2. FULLY CUSTOMIZABLE
Running a non-standard league that uses offensive fouls, free throws attempted, and assist/turnover ratio? Some draft kits might have a problem giving you adjusted rankings based on these categories. If you make your own draft kit, you can feel free to include and exclude whatever statistics you want based on the parameters of your league.
3. THE NUMBERS NEVER LIE
Pardon me for stealing Matt Buser's favorite line, but it really is true. Memories have a tendency to betray us. We remember some things favorably and others unfavorably. Would you build a draft kit if you had watched every single NBA game all year long, but didn't ever see any statistics? Clearly, no. So use those numbers, folks!
Others have criticized me in the past for "just looking at the numbers." Well, this may come as a shock, but fantasy sports are all about numbers! (Gasp!) This is not to say that the human element has no place, but at its core, the player with the best numbers wins.
4. IT GIVES PEOPLE SOMETHING TO ARGUE ABOUT
I am sure that some of you might disagree with my methods. That's fine! I am always open to new ideas for improving the process. I myself have second- and triple-guessed my own means of building draft kits, and have honed the process over a period of years. One of the great things about Fantasy Sports is that it gives people a competitive outlet, and I would hope that that same competitive spirit transfers over to this series (even if it consists of "You're a moron, Mark.").
Tune in next time for the second installment of the series, which will cover the following topics:
-Where to obtain fancy statistics for the NBA
-How to import said statistics in Microsoft Excel
-Where to download free pirated copies of Excel (just kidding!)
-Jessica Alba's phone number (kidding again!)
-Initial customization of the spreadsheet for our particular league (serious on this one!)
Until then, take care.
-M
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