The Brand Conundrum

Greetings from Kauai! Yes, that's right, I'm making a blog entry from my honeymoon. The jokes tell themselves, folks. Don't go thinking you are the second coming of George Carlin or anything.

This post could just have easily been titled "The Gason Question" or "Amare or No?" after their draft-day question marks the last couple years. For Gasol, a broken ankle in international play left him out for the first few months of the season, and for Stoudemire, recovery from microfracture surgery. In Gasol's case, his return from the injury was a lot more predictable since a bone break has a very established timeline for a return. People generally picked him in about the 4th-5th round of their drafts (he went in the early 4th round of my 14 team competitive H2H league), depending on your scoring system and format (it's a heck of a lot easier to carry an injured guy in roto than in daily H2H leagues). He did come back on schedule and was a very productive player for the rest of the year, making his draft position well worth it.

The year prior, Stoudemire went somewhere around the 4th-6th round, which varied widely based on people's optimism or love for the Phoenix Suns. As we now know, Stoudemire wouldn't have merited a 16th round selection much less a 6th rounder based on his eventual performance (hint: he didn't do much). Apparently microfracture surgery is a real bitch to come back from!

Can we use these two very different past results to make a good suggestion of where to take Elton Q. Brand, Esquire?

Well, to start off this is all going to depend on the stated timetable for Brand's return. If it's "one year," then clearly he would be out for the season and we would all be looking forward to 2008-2009 (his draft position in that situation would best be discussed in another posting). If it's "six months," as has also been mentioned, that would put his return date at about February. The fantasy basketball season runs from the end of October to the end of April, give or take. The FBB regular season runs until the end of March. That would give a Brand return at the most optimistically about 3 months of playing time (probably more like 2 and a half).

A more relevant question is not "how long will he be playing?" but "how effective will he be?" I can't remember a prominent basketball player tearing his achilles tendon, but I would imagine that even after returning from the injury, Brand will be quite rusty and out of shape. Factor in at least a couple of weeks for him to get back in the swing of things, get his legs under him, and get his timing back. That gives you 2 months of playing time, and remember, that's the best case situation.

So where should we pick him? To me, a guy who is going to give you (at best) 2 months of playing time, with the distinct possibility of missing the entire season or being just plain ineffective, isn't worth anything more than a late-round flier in all but the deepest of the leagues. In roto you can burn a 9th or 10th rounder on him if you want, but in daily H2H the cost is simply too great to keep a guy on your bench for perhaps the entire year. I would not bother drafting him at all, but if forced to I would take him in the very last round. Of course, I'm sure some rocket scientists out there will take him in th 7th or 8th, hoping for a miracle comeback, but I don't believe in miracles. I believe in beating those guys who believe in miracles.

Aloha!