Winning the Winners Winners Winners League

Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love LeBron

Part 1: The Draft

Entering the 2008-09 fantasy basketball season, I was looking for a challenge. All of my private leagues were in the head-to-head format (which, as those of you who pay attention to my posts know, is not my favorite format in the world), so I was looking for a challenging roto league. I had played in roto leagues in the past, but all were Yahoo! Public leagues and, as those who have played in such leagues can attest, they are not the surest test of fantasy skill. Half the teams lag far behind in games played at midseason due to inactivity, leaving a handful of attentive teams to vie for the title; popular waiver adds who would be snapped up immediately in normal 12 team leagues somehow linger on the wire for days on end; and strategy is rudimentary at best (“How many Pistons can I draft?” and “Let’s pair Dwight Howard and Tracy McGrady together and see what happens!” being two methods I’ve observed).

Clearly, finding a roto league populated with smart, attentive managers who get their games played in is a non-trivial exercise. This is why, when rotoworld.com forum legend The Czar approached me about playing in his long-running roto league, I jumped at the chance. Despite a lack of financial incentives, this is a league that takes itself very seriously; players get their games in or suffer the consequences (teams outside the top 3 who don’t get 780 games in are subject to removal from the league), and the trash talk is often merciless. Also present was Phantasy Phreak from these very same forums, along with 9 others who are not forum members.

Our live draft took place a bit before the season started, on 19 October 2008. We had determined draft order before the draft date, and I knew that I would have the 4^th pick in the draft. Coming into the 08-09 season, the two clear top options in roto were Chris Paul and Amare Stoudemire. Clearly, my first option was to take one of these two if they happened to slip. They didn’t. Paul went first, Kobe second, and Amare third. This is basically how I expected things to go, leaving me with my predetermined conundrum of LeBron James versus Dirk Nowitzki. Hindsight would dictate that this is no choice at all, but prior to the season LeBron was a player with serious roto question marks. His poor FT% (71.2% in 07-08) at high volume and a high turnover number (3.4 per game) were giant red flags for this format. Obviously upside was a plus for LeBron, but I gave Dirk some serious thought, for being a boon in both percentages and generally a high quality roto pick. Ultimately, I went for the challenge and took Mr. James, which worked out OK.

Having taken what I thought was a huge FT% anchor, I was determined to shore up that category with my next couple of selections. I was pleased as punch to be able to select Kevin Martin with my second-round selection (pick #21). KMartJu was the 4^th most positive FT shooting player in 2008-09, and #2 the season before that. While I didn’t figure he would singlehandedly save my FT%, he was definitely the player I wanted at that slot and would go a long way to salvaging that category.

When my third pick (#28) rolled around, I (basically) had no choice but to draft Marcus Camby. He was a player I had ranked very high on my pre-season cheat sheet (mid-second round, to be precise). Despite the injury history and new team (pre-Randolph trade, mind you), I couldn’t avoid the value in this spot.

For my fourth pick (#45), I selected another roto mainstay in Rasheed Wallace. One of the elite roto players, Wallace is a longtime member of the 1-1-1 club (steals, blocks, three pointers made), has C eligibility, and also seldom commits TOs. Rasheed is another player whose value (end of 3^rd round) far exceeded his draft slot.

With my fifth selection (#52), I took a calculated risk and selected Mike Dunleavy, Jr. Dunleavy was the 31^st ranked player in 9-cat roto for 07-08, and while I didn’t expect quite that level of production, I figured at pick 52 he would be a good value even with a built-in drop-off from his play of the previous season. I didn’t figure he would have a giant bone spur in his knee, but that’s a topic for another time.

Well-known percentage assassin David Lee was my selection in the sixth round (#69). Obviously his play this season exceeded my expectations, but even if he were to simply duplicate his last year’s stat line (11 points, 9 rebounds, 55%/81%) he would be another positive force for my percentages.

My seventh-round choice presented an unexpected but pleasant problem. Both Andris Biedrins and Ray Allen were remaining on the board for pick #76. I had both guys going much higher in the draft, so I was quite stunned to see them last that long. While Allen was probably the better choice for my team (given a slight dearth of three-point shooting with Wallace, Dunleavy, and LeBron so far), I channeled my inner Brad Evans and succumbed to the man-crush, taking the spiky-haired Latvian.

At this point The Czar said in chat something along the lines of “I think you just punted FT%.” Clearly I had some more work to do, and fast. It was for this reason that I selected Richard Hamilton with my eighth-round choice, pick #93. I am not a big fan of Hamilton in roto formats; he doesn’t make many threes for a SG, doesn’t pass particularly well, doesn’t steal the ball hardly ever, and isn’t a great FG% shooter, either. But you know what he does do well? Shoot free throws. At this point, I felt my team was strong enough in all categories (save assists, more on this later) to give up some to shore up the FT%, so Rip it is.

My ninth-round selection (#100) was another FT% assassin, Kirk Hinrich. Despite massive uncertainly regarding his role in the stacked Chicago backcourt (Hinrich, Gordon, Derrick Rose, Larry Hughes), I figured at worst a trade could spring him if Rose turned out to be awesome. It turned out he broke his wrist early in the season, clearing the path for Rose’s likely RoY campaign.

In Round 10 (#117) I took one final FT% assassin, Kyle Korver. He also helped me in threes, which I felt was a weak point of my team.

Round 11 (#124) – Gilbert Arenas. Since my starting lineup was ostensibly filled, I took a chance on an injured guy here. Considering I didn’t spend much, I don’t really regret this pick.

Round 12 (#141) – Rodney Stuckey. This was an awesome genius pick that I proceeded to screw up by dropping him in the beginning of the season.

Round 13 (#148) – Louis Williams. Not much to see here.

If you glance over my supposed starting roster, Hinrich – Dunleavy – Hamilton - LBJ – Lee – Wallace - Biedrins – Camby - Korver – Martin, my team was very strong in most categories, including TOs. While many roto players choose to simply ignore turnovers, I feel it’s a chance to get a ton of value in players that others might not be too jazzed about. As many of you have read, there is a clear inverse relationship between standing in AST and TOs; that is, the higher in AST you finish, the lower you finish in TO (generally speaking). Many players pump high draft picks into PGs like Deron Williams to finish strong in AST, but such players only end up tanking you in TOs. It’s a zero sum game, basically. If you know that with some deft managing you will get at best a total of 16-18 points from the two categories combined, why kill yourself over AST?

Part 2: The early game, and dealing with some early-season disappointment.

SS Rankings - 2009

These rankings are for ESPN default leagues (5 IF positions + MI + CI, 5 x OF, UT) and ESPN position assignments.

Tier 1 – “High Demand, Big Payoff”
1. Hanley Ramirez (FLA) – The #1 overall fantasy player, in this writer’s humble opinion. He gives you 20-40 with an average above .300, great runs scored and good RBI for a SS.

2. Jose Reyes (NYM) – A bit of a drop-off from #1 to #2, but Reyes is still the game’s premier source of stolen bases, and he scores a boatload of runs in that stacked lineup.

3. Jimmy Rollins (PHI) – I considered putting him in Tier 2, but there’s a huge dropoff from Rollins to Furcal. Maybe he should have gone by himself in Tier 2? At any rate, solid production, but don’t count on 2007 here. 20hr and 30sb would be a fine season.

Tier 2 – “High Quality Options”
4. Rafael Furcal (LAD) – A back injury limited Furcal to only 36 games last season, but he was the best SS in the game by averages. A small sample space, to be sure, but even with a significant drop-off he will justify a pick in the 3rd/4th round.

5. Stephen Drew (ARI) – A breakout 2008 has perhaps raised expectations for Drew the Younger to unreachable expectations, but if he gives you 2008 again it will be enough to justify this ranking, with potential for a bit more.

6. Jhonny Peralta (CLE) – The Misspelled Masher had a breakout 2008 with 23 homers, 104 runs scored and 89 RBI. While those totals aren’t likely to be repeated, Peralta gives you solid pop for a mid-round SS, provided you can find steals elsewhere.

Tier 3 – “Solid, yet unspectacular”
7. Michael Young (TEX) – He’s on the wrong side of 30, so that’s something to be wary of, but he still hits for a high average and should be in the neighborhood of 80 runs and 80 RBI. The expected 3B eligibility will be a bonus, but you’ll almost certainly have him at SS based on scarcity.

8. J.J. Hardy (MIL) – A solid SS who hits for some pop but won’t contribute in the SB category and is average (at best) in average. One thing to note is that he’s prone to brutal slumps (and hot streaks), so you may be able to pry him away from an impatient owner when he’s in a cold spell.

9. Derek Jeter (NYY) – Almost always goes higher than he should based on reputation and name recognition. He’s 35, but if drafted properly he’ll merit his spot. Contributes across the board (.290/10+/80+/60+/10+). Don’t expect any more .330 or 30 SB seasons or you’ll be disappointed.

10. Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – People are all aboard the Tulowitzki bandwagon after his good second half of ’08 erased people’s memories of his sub-abysmal first half. I guess I’m just not as willing to pretend that 80 games don’t count for anything. He could be a top-5 SS, but could also be thoroughly mediocre.

11. Miguel Tejada (HOU) – No lies, this guy is a good source of power from a difficult position. However, he’s 35 (assuming he only fibbed once on his birth certificate), and I would rather perjure myself than pick him in the first 7 rounds of a 12-team mixed draft.

Tier 4 – “Passable”
12. Mike Aviles (KC) – His 2008 season was better than any of his minor league seasons, which raises a huge red flag. He’s bound to normalize, but his free-swinging ways should make him a good candidate for double-digit homers and 60-70 runs/RBI; not bad considering his team.

13. Edgar Renteria (SF) – Renteria seems to be one of the most controversial shortstops this year. People seem to be of the mind that he’s either a walking corpse or that he’ll walk on water due to his return to the NL. I’d split the difference and hope for a .280/10/85/60/5 season.

14. Yunel Escobar (ATL) – He’s not a BA assassin, he doesn’t steal many bases or hit for much power, and his R/RBI totals are unimpressive, but he does all of them just well enough to merit a spot in 12-team mixed leagues. You could certainly do worse, but if you pick him and still have to fill a MI position you could be in trouble.

15. Orlando Cabrera (FA) – He’ll chip in to your SB totals and won’t kill you with his average. Another tolerable option at SS, provided that he actually has a contract (details, details!).

16. Ryan Theriot (CHC) – Um, he steals bases. Actually a better player in fantasy than in real life, which doesn’t say much about either Jim Hendry or Lou Piniella, sadly.

Tier 5 – “The Dregs”
17. Elvis Andrus (TEX) – I am pretty terrible with rookies, so I’ll just put him here towards the end of the draft. Provided he sticks, he should contribute well in steals and that’s about it. I would only take him as a luxury or as a late-round flier.

18. Cristian Guzman (WAS) – That really was the mother of all fluke seasons, wasn’t it? I certainly wouldn’t expect that again, but if he hit .270 with some steals and runs scored, it wouldn’t shock the hell out of me, either.

19. Clint Barmes (COL) – Should start at 2B but should also be SS eligible, which is handy. I’m not sure which position is more scarce, but I’d guess the former. Serviceable.

20. Khalil Greene (STL) – His 2008 was truly awful, but he should be better than that. He’s capable of 20 HR, and if he hits .255 or better, that would be a bonus.

21. Jason Bartlett (TB) – Hey, at this point getting anything from your SS is a bonus, so Bartlett’s potential 20+ steals are bound to help out your team.